I get asked all the time how I evaluate deals in the private capital markets. Not just businesses I plan to operate, but LP investments in real estate, private credit, and private equity.

How do you actually know if something is a good opportunity?

After nearly two decades of buying companies and investing alongside operators, I’ve learned that great deals don’t announce themselves through spreadsheets alone. They show up through patterns.

Inside Acquisition Lab, we call the lens I use the Growth Predictor Framework. It’s the same framework we use to stress test hundreds of acquisitions and private market investments every year.

I want to walk you through that framework using a live example. Not because the deal itself is the point, but because it shows how the framework works in practice.

That example is the Legacy Fund.

 

The Growth Predictor Framework

When I look at a deal, I’m not trying to predict the future with precision. I’m trying to stack probabilities.

 

 

I ask five questions:

• Is the offer structurally compelling?
• Is there real demand?
• Is there a clear path to cash flow and upside?
• Are the operators aligned and proven?
• Is there visible momentum already underway?

If a deal checks all five, I lean in. If it misses one, I slow down.

 

1. The Offer: More Than the Asset

Every deal starts with the offer, but not just price.

I want to understand who’s at the table, why the deal exists, and whether the structure creates leverage beyond the initial transaction.

In the Legacy Fund, the offer wasn’t simply “buy these properties.” It was concentrated ownership in a single, walkable district in my hometown of St. Louis. The fund acquires a cluster of adjacent buildings in the Central West End, a neighborhood defined by historic architecture, high foot traffic, and long term institutional presence.

 

 

On day one, that concentration makes the fund the largest property owner in that neighborhood. That changes the nature of the opportunity.

Instead of each building operating in isolation, the properties function as an ecosystem. Tenant mix, shared infrastructure, coordinated redevelopment, and future expansion all become strategic levers. It also opens the door to off market acquisitions of adjacent properties that simply aren’t available when ownership is scattered.

That’s what I look for at the offer level. Not just a good asset, but a position that creates control and optionality over time.

 

2. Demand: Real and Hard to Fake

No deal works without demand. But in private markets, the best demand signals are usually obvious.

The Central West End sits between two economic anchors. Barnes-Jewish Hospital and Washington University Medical School employ tens of thousands of people and draw constant inflows of capital, talent, and visitors. Nearby, the Cortex Innovation District continues to absorb investment and high-income jobs.

 

Source: Washington University Medical Campus

 

The result is persistent demand for walkable, high quality residential and commercial space. Occupancy in the neighborhood hovers near capacity, and new construction remains constrained.

This is the kind of demand I trust. Not projected trends, but durable demand driven by institutions with multi-decade horizons.

When demand is obvious and supply is limited, pricing power tends to follow.

 

3. The Money: Clear Paths to Value Creation

Next, I want to understand how the deal actually makes money and where upside comes from.

In the Legacy Fund, cash flow is supported by a mix of long term commercial tenants and residential units with room for improvement. Several of the properties have below market rents, underutilized square footage, or clear value-add opportunities.

The fund also includes the last meaningful parcel of developable land in the neighborhood’s core corridor. That creates an additional layer of upside through future development, without requiring LPs to take on personal guarantees or operational risk.

 

 

What matters here is asymmetry. Limited downside paired with multiple, realistic paths to upside. Not financial gymnastics or perfect timing, but value creation rooted in real assets and operational improvement.

 

4. The Team: Alignment Over Everything

I can’t overstate this. The people running the deal matter more than the deal itself.

The operators behind the Legacy Fund have executed this exact playbook multiple times across St. Louis. In each case, they became the largest owner in an underutilized district and drove long term neighborhood transformation through coordinated investment.

Their model is vertically integrated. Property management, construction, development, and capital markets all sit under one roof. They don’t earn their returns through fees. They earn them by creating value in the assets.

That alignment matters. When operators make money the same way investors do, incentives stay clean.

It’s also why I invest my own capital in every deal I share. If I’m not willing to be in it personally, I don’t offer it.

 

5. Momentum: Transformation Already in Motion

Finally, I look for momentum you can see, not just model.

Some markets are waiting to be fixed. Others are already changing, and the question is whether you’re early or late.

The Central West End has been building toward this moment for years. Institutional capital has moved in quietly. Infrastructure and employment have expanded. The neighborhood already functions as a live-work-play hub, with history and gravity on its side.

 

 

The Legacy Fund isn’t trying to spark transformation from scratch. It’s stepping into an existing flywheel and adding fuel.

 

Why This Framework Matters

The Growth Predictor Framework isn’t about one fund or one asset class. It’s how I evaluate all private market opportunities, whether I’m buying a business to operate or investing as a limited partner.

At BuildWealth, the goal is to create something like a family office for the rest of us. Access to institutional grade private deals, without needing tens of millions in liquid assets.

Great returns come from great operators solving real problems in inefficient markets.

That’s where wealth is built.

If you’re ready to invest alongside me, get access to the Deal Room now – or join my investor list to be the first to hear about upcoming opportunities.